New Zealand vote projected to leave government formation unclear

A new poll indicates that New Zealand will likely face a hung parliament after the upcoming election.

The survey, conducted by Curia for the Taxpayers Union, projects that neither the current government coalition nor the main opposition bloc will secure a majority of the 120 parliamentary seats.

The right-leaning group comprising National, ACT, and New Zealand First is projected to hold 60 seats. The left-leaning group of Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori is projected to hold 53 seats. Adding the Opportunity Party to the left side brings that total to 60 seats as well.

National Party support rose slightly to 28.9 percent, which equates to 35 seats. Labour support increased to 28.4 percent for 34 seats. The Greens gained 1.1 percentage points to reach 14.4 percent, or 18 seats. ACT moved up 1.3 points to 10.5 percent, projecting 13 seats. New Zealand First suffered the largest drop, falling 2.2 points to 9.8 percent for 12 seats. The Opportunity Party rose 1.0 point to 5.8 percent for 7 seats. Te Pāti Māori declined 0.3 points to 1.1 percent, holding 1 seat.

The poll does not factor in any overhang seats that either bloc might win. The survey asked 1,000 eligible voters between October 28 and November 3. Curia weighted the data for gender, age, and region. The margin of error is 3.1 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

In the race for prime minister, Christopher Luxon leads with 23.8 percent support, up 2.6 points from the previous month. Chris Hipkins follows at 22.6 percent, up 1.6 points. Winston Peters holds 10.3 percent, down 3.6 points. Chlöe Swarbrick has 6.0 percent, up 1.1 points. David Seymour has 5.9 percent, down 0.1 points.

Hipkins called the results close but questioned the poll's general credibility. He noted that voter turnout has been high in recent days. He said his team will work to sustain that turnout until 7:00 p.m. on Saturday. Seymour stated that the focus remains on the voter, adding that every party vote for ACT adds to the coalition total. The next major step is the final days of voting before the result is announced.