Prediction markets peg Raman's mayoral odds at 95% as late votes shift lead

Nithya Raman held a 95% probability of winning the Los Angeles mayoral race according to prediction market data on the platform Kalshi, a figure that tracked her slow but steady gain in the vote count. By early Wednesday morning, Raman had taken a slight lead over incumbent Mayor Karen Bass, reversing the initial tally from election night Tuesday that showed the two candidates within a margin of error.

The shift in momentum aligns with a pattern observed in the June 2 primary. At that time, former reality television star Spencer Pratt led Raman on election night. Raman, then a councilmember, overtook Pratt five days later as late-arriving ballots from younger voters were tallied. Polling data indicated Raman was heavily favored by this demographic, which historically votes later than older residents.

Paul Mitchell, head of the polling data firm PDI, told the Los Angeles Times that the current trajectory suggests a unidirectional gain for Raman. Mitchell stated that if Raman continues to gain votes as expected, there is no reason to anticipate a reversal. He noted that analysts generally do not call races, but the data points strongly toward Raman securing the win.

The campaign for the open seat was tight until the final days. Final polling showed Raman and Bass each with support from 40% of voters, while 19% remained undecided. Raman ran with the backing of the Democratic Socialists of America, a leftist organization that also endorsed New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Her platform, branded as “A City That Works,” focused on infrastructure repairs such as potholes and streetlights.

Bass campaigned on a public safety message aimed at moderates and conservative voters. She projected confidence at the Los Angeles County Democratic Party’s election night watch party, stating that the work done in the city would lead to victory. Supporters at her event, held at the Loews Hollywood Hotel, chanted for four more years despite the tight initial results.

Lindsey Horvath, a Los Angeles County supervisor who endorsed Raman, declared that Raman was going to be the next mayor. Estevan Montemayor, who ran an independent expenditure group supporting Raman, called the race over. Both comments came as the vote count continued to be processed through Wednesday.

Raman’s entry into the race was late in the cycle. Rumors of her candidacy emerged the night before the February 7 filing deadline. City Controller Kenneth Mejia recalled that he expected to serve another four years in his current role if Raman did not run. He described her announcement as an unexpected “three-pointer” that changed the dynamic of the election.

Joeseph Fuchs, a representative for the Western States Regional Council of Carpenters, told supporters watching the returns that the initial results were just the beginning. He cited the 95% figure from the prediction market as a key indicator. Raman ended her election night speech by inviting supporters to the dance floor, where she danced to a Michael Jackson track while taking selfies with backers.