Serbian Politics: Student List Defeats Vučić in Mirror of Hungarian Fall

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat on Sunday evening at 21:30, ending a 14-year tenure that closely paralleled the fall of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. The Student List, a movement established less than two years ago, won a landslide victory in Serbia’s parliamentary elections. This outcome mirrors the April defeat of Orbán, who was ousted by Péter Magyar’s Tisza party.

Turnout figures indicate a strong mobilization of younger voters in both nations. Hungary recorded a 79% turnout in April, while Serbia saw 69% participation last Sunday. In both cases, tech-savvy citizens utilized artificial intelligence tools to analyze data and identify threats to the voting process. These efforts supported the deployment of tens of thousands of election monitors to counter intimidation and fraud.

The DE civic action group in Hungary sent 70 monitors to Serbia last weekend to assist the student movement. They focused on the northern province of Vojvodina, where they collaborated with local representatives. During the summer, before the election was officially called, the groups held workshops to transfer methods from the Hungarian campaign. A primary tactic involved identifying "infected" polling districts in advance. These areas showed historically high vote shares for governing parties, suggesting prior use of chain voting or intimidation.

Péter Klemm, a student activist from Subotica, described the presence of masked Vučić supporters near voting stations from 16:00 on election day. He stated that mobile teams were deployed to film the activity. These mobile units worked alongside stationary monitors, with 20 to 30 volunteers positioned at each threatened site. Klemm believes this density of observers acted as a strong deterrent against fraud.

Vučić and Orbán had shared close business and political ties before their respective falls. They met in Subotica last November for a lunch of burek pastries and a visit to a local winery. The two leaders discussed the planned Hungarian purchase of Serbia’s Niš oil refinery. They also coordinated on international relations, maintaining strong support for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. A high-speed railway linking Belgrade and Budapest, financed by China, underscored their commercial alignment.

The Student List secured 140 of the 250 seats in the Serbian parliament. This numerical parity is notable as Péter Magyar’s Tisza party won 140 seats in the 199-seat Hungarian parliament. Magyar called the students directly to congratulate them on election night. He described the Hungarian result as validation of their approach, stating that the story of Tisza could inspire other nations.

Ilija Srdanović, the head of the Student List, said on the eve of the vote that the Hungarian election clearly showed their methods were correct. Srdanović was among the contacts who spoke with Magyar on Sunday. Speculation emerged that Vučić called Orbán twice on election night, seeking advice before and after his concession. Vučić confirmed the later conversation but denied speaking to Orbán before his announcement. Orbán declined to comment.

Both leaders now face potential prosecution for corruption and abuse of power. Serbia’s special prosecution service for organized crime, JTOK, and Hungary’s new special prosecutors, NVVH, hold similar powers that may facilitate cooperation. Hungarian companies linked to Orbán were involved in the construction of the Novi Sad railway station. The collapse of the station’s canopy on 1 November 2024, which killed 16 people, served as a catalyst for the Serbian student movement. Áron Timar, founder of the DE civic action group, noted that while the regimes appeared to grow stronger, they actually weakened until society rose up.