UNM football targets Mountain West title, but CFP remains a long shot

New Mexico head coach Jason Eck threw a bowling pin on the ground after the Lobos beat North Dakota State 21-16 last Saturday. The pin, a custom cherry-and-silver gift from the nonprofit Bowl Season, had been central to the team's celebration last year when UNM secured its first bowl bid in nearly a decade. This time, the victory marked the team's second straight season in the postseason, but the mood was different. No cigars were smoked, and no special T-shirts were worn. Eck said the team never discussed becoming bowl-eligible this year because their sights were set on bigger goals.

The Lobos currently stand at 6-1 and are the frontrunner to claim the Mountain West Conference championship. Winning that title would cement this squad as one of the best in the program's 126-year history. However, a more ambitious target lingers: a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff. The CFP determines the national champion through a single-elimination tournament. Each December, a 13-member committee selects the field. The top teams from the Power Four conferences and the highest-ranked Group of Six team receive automatic bids. The next seven highest-ranked teams are chosen at large. Conferences earn $4 million for each team that makes the cut.

ESPN's Football Power Index currently gives UNM a 20.3% chance of making the CFP. That places the Lobos 18th among 138 FBS teams. They are one of two frontrunners for the Group of Six playoff spot. The other is Boise State, which is 6-1 and sits in the Pac-12. The FPI gives the Broncos a 51.7% chance, the 10th-best in the country. UNM trails Boise State in most major metrics. The Lobos would need the Broncos to lose their remaining four games to open the door. Texas-San Antonio and Oregon State also have lower odds, at 16.8% and 4.6% respectively.

Even if UNM wins all six of its remaining games and captures the conference title, it could still be left out of the CFP. If that happens, the Lobos would likely be selected for one of the 17 bowls operated by ESPN Events. According to league spokesman Stuart Buchanan, ESPN is not required to select the Mountain West champion. In previous years, the non-playoff conference winner played in the LA Bowl, but that game has been discontinued.

A Mountain West bowl guide indicates the conference champion will likely play in a game located in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. ESPN Events operates three bowls in that area. The Frisco Bowl is scheduled for December 15 and paid out $650,000 last year. The Armed Forces Bowl is set for December 22 with a $1.35 million payout. The First Responder Bowl takes place on January 2 and offered $2.4 million previously. The Cactus Bowl, formerly the Rate Bowl, is another option. UNM played in that game last year. It is scheduled for December 26 and paid $1.6 million last season. The Mountain West must fill a slot in the Cactus Bowl if its primary tie-ins, the Big Ten and Big 12, do not send a team.

Other potential destinations include the Boca Raton Bowl on December 18, the Potato Bowl on December 21, the Puerto Rico Bowl on December 22, and the Hawaii Bowl and Isleta New Mexico Bowl on December 24. The league also maintains ties with non-ESPN Events bowls, such as the Arizona Bowl on January 2. Eck acknowledged the shift in focus from last season. Last year, playing in a bowl was a major goal that the team discussed all offseason. This year, that was never the primary target. Eck said he loves bowl games, but the team has its sights set on more.