Israeli Election: Neither Bloc Holds Majority

Israel's recent election has left both major political camps without a clear path to power. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, commands the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-member Knesset. This stalemate forces the country into a complex period of negotiations before a new government can be established.

Eisenkot, a center-right former military chief of staff, leads a bloc that holds more seats than Netanyahu's right-wing coalition. However, Eisenkot cannot reach a majority without the support of predominantly Arab parties. His allies repeatedly ruled out this alliance during the campaign, citing disagreements over the war in Gaza and the status of Hamas. The Arab parties represent 21% of the population.

Netanyahu's Likud party received the most votes, but his traditional coalition of right-wing, far-right, and ultra-Orthodox parties also falls short. His bloc lacks the necessary seats to return him to power independently. Both leaders now face the difficult task of assembling a governing majority from a fragmented parliament.

In the coming days, Israel's president will consult with the leaders of every elected party. Each party will recommend the candidate they believe should attempt to form a coalition first. The president is not bound to choose the leader of the largest party but will select the candidate most likely to succeed. That candidate receives 28 days to secure support, with a possible 14-day extension.

If the first candidate fails, the president may offer the opportunity to another leader. The process could last weeks or months. One reported possibility is a unity government between Netanyahu and Eisenkot. Israeli and U.S. media have noted that President Trump favors such an outcome, though this has not been independently confirmed. A unity government would likely include moderate parties from the political center.

Eisenkot has pledged not to serve in a government led by Netanyahu, creating a hurdle for any such alliance. Another possibility is an Eisenkot-led coalition supported by Arab parties, which would command more than 67 seats. This arrangement remains unlikely given campaign promises, though Arab parties could support a minority government from outside the coalition. A repeat election is also possible if no candidate can form a majority.

During this interim period, the opposition may use its parliamentary strength to advance legislation. Eisenkot's bloc is considering replacing the speaker of the Knesset and establishing a state commission of inquiry into the failures preceding the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. Critics say these moves could reverse legislation that weakened democratic institutions.

The threat of renewed conflict with Iran adds pressure to the negotiations. Netanyahu stated in his election night speech that Israel must complete its mission against Iran. Eisenkot warned against using national security for political needs. Analyst Danny Citrinowicz said Netanyahu has an incentive to renew fighting, as an emergency would increase pressure on Eisenkot to join a unity government.